Discipline makes Daring possible.

Bake the profit in

Bake the profit in

I loved this reminder from @Jason Fried this morning, that your main ‘competitor’ is your own profitability.

And that put me in mind of the kind of tragedy I see played out over and over again with amazing small businesses.   Tragedy that could be avoided with the right kind of attention to detail at the beginning.

As Fried says, as long as you are profitable, you are winning.

For me, the best way to be sure you are profitable, is to know that every single thing you sell is profitable in it’s own right, every time you sell it.

And I mean truly profitable, net profitable, after all costs have been accounted for.

Here’s how to work that out:

Let’s say I make beautiful sourdough bread, 20 loaves a day for 20 lucky subscribers who pick up daily.

First there’s the obvious costs of ingredients:

I buy these in different quantities, so I split each quantity into the number of loaves I will get from it:

  • 10kg of heritage wholewheat flour at £27 (including postage) gives me 20 loaves at a cost of £1.35 per loaf
  • 25kg of sea salt  at £20.95 will season 1923 loaves, at a cost of 1p per loaf
  • 10l of water at 14p per litre, will make 20 loaves at 7p per loaf.

I use 100g of sourdough starter for each loaf, made up of 50g rye flour and 50ml water.

  • 25kg of rye flour at £34 (including postage) will start 500 loaves at 6.8p per loaf.
  • A litre of water at 14p will start my 20 loaves at 0.7p per loaf.

So far then, the ingredients for my sourdough loaf cost me 1.35+ 0.01 + 0.068 + 0.077  = £1.51

But I haven’t allocated all my costs yet:

  • Wastewater – for every litre I use baking, I use about 900ml in washing up.  At 90p per litre this means 81p in total, or 4p per loaf.
  • There’s a fixed charge for water and wastewater of 6p and 18p per day respectively, so 24p per day, or 1.2p per loaf.
  • Obviously I cook my loaves, so there will be fuel costs.  I use an electric fan oven, and cook my bread for an hour, so that comes to about 45p per batch of 4 loaves, or 12p per loaf.

That takes us up to 1.51 + 0.04 + 0.012 + 12 = £1.69 per loaf.

And I still haven’t allocated all my costs:

I bake my loaves on trays lined with parchment paper, 2 loaves per tray

  • 10m of parchment paper at £1.45 will do 28 trays, or 56 loaves, so comes to 3p per loaf.
  • My 2 aluminium baking trays cost me  £13.50 each, and will last me at least 5 years. At 200 baking days a year, with 20 loaves per day, that comes to 20,000 loaves, or 0.135p per loaf.
  • The 8 bannetons I prove my bread in cost me £11.39 each and likewise should last me 5 years.  That adds about 0.5p per loaf.
  • I mix my dough in a couple of 12l stainless steel bowls, at £21.99 each.  That adds another 0.22p per loaf.
  • My dough scraper cost £1.20 and should last me 2 years, which adds 0.15p per loaf.
  • I invested in 2 heat-resistant oven gloves with fingers at £13.99 each. That adds another 0.014p per loaf.

These are tiny amounts, but together, add another 4.2p per loaf.

We’re now up to £1.73 per loaf.

And I still have to add costs for maintaining my sourdough starter (feeding it, keeping it somewhere where it can grow); cleaning up (washing up liquid, wipes etc.); wrapping the loaves (paper or paper bags); selling the loaves (point of sale system subscription or commission, website, marketing (even something as simple as an A board costs money, uses chalks and wears out); heating and/or lighting my kitchen; wear and tear on my worksurfaces etc., etc.

Let’s say that adds another 5p per loaf.

And finally my time.  Which I work out by looking at how much I would have to pay someone else to do it – this is pretty much the minimum wage at the moment, so I decide to pay myself the same for now £10.18 per hour. My 20 loaves a day takes a total of 4 hours to make, bake, and wrap. So that’s £2.04 a loaf.

So now we’re up to £3.82 per loaf.

I do this in my own kitchen at the moment, so there’s no rent. But it’s worth pretending that there is rent to pay right from the off. So I look up how much it would cost to hire a dark kitchen. I can find a 170 sq ft one on Bermondsey for £2,600 per month ex VAT. My own kitchen is half that size, so I halve that figure. I only use it for half a day too, so I halve that again, to get a notional rent of £650 per month.

Divided among my 430 loaves a month, that adds £1.51 per loaf.

So my final total cost per loaf is £5.33

Now I need to add a profit to that.

I know I’ve covered all my costs per loaf, so I can experiment with this, to see what my market will bear.

Whether it’s 30p or 70p or £1.70 per loaf, what matters is that I know it’s all profit.

And that profit margin will only increase as I increase production, buy in more bulk, and spread my fixed costs across more loaves – until I have to rent a bigger kitchen, when it would pay to go through this exercise again.

Doing this exercise in such excruciateing detail is undoubtedly a faff.

But it pays off.

Because by the end of it you have a complete and intimate understanding of what it actually costs you to make the thing you make (whether that’s a product or a service), and that means you can charge the right profitable price for it from the very beginning.

If you don’t – and I’ve seen too many small businesses do this – growth turns into tragedy, because all you’re doing is losing money faster.  Chasing sales, when what matters is profit.

Bake profit into each and every item you sell and you can relax, knowing that your profitability gets better as you grow.

That way you can be sure of being around to keep the promises you make to the people you seek to serve for as long as they want you.

Discipline makes Daring possible.

Repeating ourselves

Repeating ourselves

It looks as though humanity (actually only a small part of it) is about to repeat one of our gravest and most frequent mistakes – to start exploiting a vast and almost completely unknown resource without thinking seriously about the possible consequences.   In pursuit of materials that may well prove to be redundant in a few years.

We did it with whale oils, we did it with America’s great plains, we’re still doing it with rainforests and wetlands everywhere, and now we plan to do it with the mid-ocean ridges.

What makes it worse, is that the benefits will accrue to a few, while the harms will accrue to many, for generations to come.   We won’t even recycle the materials we extract – why bother when it’s cheaper to mine, for as long as the true cost is never accounted for?

It’s not quite too late to stop this, Greenpeace has a petition you can sign, but maybe the best thing is simply to make yourself and others aware, so they can sign too.

We humans are ingenious creatures, we don’t have to go on repeating ourselves.

We could force ourselves to think of better alternatives by making promises to our planet and our future selves.

Discipline makes Daring possible.

This is gold

This is gold

“There is literally no limit to the promises we can make. The only limit is to the number we are able to fulfill.”* Richard Murphy

So, if you have some energy, capability or capacity going to waste in your enterprise, get making some new promises.

Otherwise, concentrate on fulfilling the promises you’ve already made, and get building your energy, capacity and capabilities.

And if you can’t do that quickly enough, put your prices up temporarily to slow down demand while you build.

 

*The quote is about money of course, which is simply a promise to pay.  A country like the UK, that issues its own currency, can make as many of these promises as it likes, as long as they can be delivered.  It’s what Maynard Keynes meant when he said  “What we can do, we can pay for.”

What if you could do things the other way around?

What if you could do things the other way around?

Clothing brand Unfolded only makes what they have already sold.

More than that, they only make what they know people will buy.  They find out what to make by getting their customers to help with the design process every couple of months.

A very simple way to save waste of all kinds.

Where could you put the cart before the horse in your business?

Discipline makes Daring possible.

The future belongs to tadpoles

The future belongs to tadpoles

What if people didn’t have to work for a living?   How would you attract people to work in your small business?

Pay would be the obvious first thought, but when people don’t have to worry about survival, money isn’t the motivator we think it is.  Not on its own.

So what would motivate someone to work with you?

Probably, good work, that enriches:

  • The ecosystem of the organization in which the profit is produced
  • The ecosystem of the community of which that organization is a part
  • The greater ecology of the planet

And also enriches:

  • Their inner ecosystem
  • The client’s inner ecosystem

By enabling each person to achieve more of what we all really want:

  • Agency – to make our own ‘me-shaped’ dent in the universe.
  • Mastery – to learn and master (even teach) new skills.
  • Autonomy – to be free to choose how we make our dent.
  • Purpose – to do this for something bigger than ourselves, that has meaning beyond the sale.
  • Community – to do all this with ‘people like us’.
    • Status – to know (and for others to know) where we stand in our communities.

 

Businesses that do all this don’t look like Amazon, Google or Coca-Cola.   They look more like Nucor, or Michelin, or Haier, or Buurtzorg.

But these are the big players, the mighty toads in the big business pond.

What if you’re just a tadpole?

That’s excellent news, because you can jump into this future right now, as a Disappearing Boss.

You might even make this future happen sooner.

 

Discipline makes Daring possible.

 

Coming soon, The Disappearing Bosses Club.

Beyond a Survival Economy

Beyond a Survival Economy

As you know, I like a book that takes a different perspective, that opens up new possibilities, that offers a different mental model for how the world could be.

“Beyond a Survival Economy” by David Foulkes is one of those books.

I haven’t finished it yet, and I’m not going to save you the job of reading it, because I really think you should, but there was one quote that stuck in my mind as I read it yesterday:

“Payment is always forward oriented…when you are buying something, you are ordering its continued production and sale.” Götz Werner

That is how we as consumers continually re-create the world we currently inhabit.

Which means that one of the ways to create a different kind of world, is to buy it into existence.

To look behind the marketing and decide whether the world this brand is actually creating is what we want for our seventh-generation grandchildren.

And if it isn’t look for something else, or do without.

To put our money where our mouth is.

Not because this will change the world on its own, it won’t.

But we can use it as one way in to changing the system, while we tackle it from another direction elsewhere.

Discipline makes Daring possible.

 

Flexibility

Flexibility

What if something you thought was rigid, needn’t be at all?

One of the many gems I picked up from the latest episode of The New Human Movement podcast, in which Gary Hamel and Michele Zanini interview John Ferriola, former CEO of Nucor, was this.

Since the firm started in the ’60s, they have never laid anyone off.

They have worked short hours. At least once, they have worked almost no hours making ‘quality steel, safely produced‘, which is literally what they are paid for.  When that happened in 2009, they worked in the communities around their plants  instead, because they were having an equally tough time.

So even though people didn’t earn as much pay, they remained employed.   This meant they kept their employment benefits such as health insurance, pension rights, holiday entitlements and length of tenure.

The result is of course, massive loyalty to the firm (which everyone part-owns), and zero resistance to changes that will make it more profitable (also because they get a share of unit and group-wide profits too).

Nucor’s work is seasonal anyway, so they already had this arrangement in place, it just happens to make it easier to adapt to downturns and be ahead of upturns.

Any old how, this reminded me of a ridiculously simple approach to seasonality of work, that seems to be commonplace in Europe, but not here.

In essence, you separate the way work is paid for from when it is delivered.

Here’s how:

Every year, a seasonal business works out how many hours it expects to be producing whatever it produces.

It works out what capacity it needs to have in place for the seasonal rush.

It employs that number of people.

The number of hours worked over the whole year per person is total hours/number of people.

An individual’s monthly salary works out as (total hours/number of people)/12.

Next the business agrees with each person individually how they are going to work those hours to fit with the seasonality of the business.  When they will have holidays, when they don’t need to come in at all, and when they will be working extra-long shifts.

That’s it.

The result is that the business has a predictable salary cost over the year and the right number of people actually working in it at any one time, without having to constantly drop and recruit new people.

The people have a regular monthly income they can use to plan, and space in their annual schedule to do other things – holiday, study, work another job, start a side-hustle in a meaningful way.

Both have room to be flexible if actual circumstances don’t turn out as predicted.

I came across this idea for a factory, but the product doesn’t have to be physical, it could be a service, like hotel stays, design projects, coaching hours, or haircuts.

I wonder why it has never caught on here?

Still, you could give it a try while you’re small and see what it does for you.

All you have to do is imagine that something you thought was rigid could be flexible instead, and make that flexibility work for both sides.

Discipline makes Daring possible.

Regenerative Uncertainty – creating space for innovation

Regenerative Uncertainty – creating space for innovation

I thoroughly recommend following Vaughn Tan on LinkedIn, or subscribing to his newsletter, on innovation and uncertainty.  He works with much larger organisations than I do of course but there is always food for thought for me on how to apply his thinking to my framework.

Today’s tasty dish is generative uncertainty, or how to make uncertainty work for you instead of against you.

A problem for any size of business is balancing consistency with opportunity.

Your clients want to broadly know what’s going to happen over the next days, weeks and months in and around your business.  And so do you.

At the same time, you want to be able to take advantage of any unforeseen opportunities that might crop up and avoid or at least weather any unexpected shocks.

In other words, you want your business to stay the same, even if you want it to be bigger, and you also want it to be able to change at short notice.

Traditional management structures – hierarchy, silos, bureaucratic workflows – help to keep a business the same, by centralising control and slowing down the business’s reactions to events.  Which makes it hard to change.

Complete self-management at the front end enables a business to react rapidly, because control is distributed, but makes it much harder to stay consistent, can lead to wastefulness of shared resources, and at worst leads to entropy.

Vaughn’s solution is to design spaces where innovation is directed, (Clear Guardrails) but within that direction, is free to come up with whatever it likes (Encourage Emergence), and where the ‘parent’ organisation is prepared to put time and money into emergent ideas that look promising without knowing beforehand what that support might look like (Be Ready to Provide Flexible Support).

I think small businesses can provide this kind of space too.   Without having to introduce the usual corporate structures.

Here’s how I do it:

Clear Guardrails:

Your Promise of Value, Unbreakable Promises and Customer Experience Score are yuor Clear Guardrails:

  • Your Promise states what you are here to do and for whom.
  • Your Unbreakable Promises set the boundaries of what you are willing to compromise.
  • The Customer Experience Score provides a floor for how you do it at the moment – the least that should happen.

Encourage Emergence:

  • Every individual playing your Customer Experience Score is free to use their knowledge, experience and judgement to interpret the Score in the best way possible for the client in front of them.   That means every actual Customer Experience can be quite different, yet consistent.  When someone encounters a new situation, they can deal with it.   The Score encourages emergence.

Be Ready to Provide Flexible Support:

  • The value of encouraging emergence comes from recognising when something is an opportunity rather than an exception.   It’s unfair to expect someone to do that on the fly, so your Customer Experience Score includes an ‘Improve Process’ Activity, that runs alongside making and keeping Promises.
  • Improve Process is about regularly gathering and interpreting feedback, both as individuals running your own performances of the Score, and together as a team, to identify opportunites for both playing the existing Score better and creating new Scores to meet new challenges or opportunities.  People can give each other the flexible support they need to take advantage of useful changes.

 

Discipline makes Daring possible

What do you think?

Catching up

Catching up

I don’t know about you, but I’ve found it really hard to sleep over the last few nights of hot weather, and even harder to think during the day.

So this week, I’m going to be catching up on sleep and on food for thought, so I can better keep my promise to you with more interesting stuff than I have done lately.

I can’t wait.

Vanity

Vanity

‘He that loveth silver shall not be satisfied with silver; nor he that loveth abundance with increase: this is also vanity’

(Ecclesiastes, 5.10).

Ever since we’ve been human, we have understood the damage that can be done by the monopolisation of wealth and power.  From earliest times we developed ways to prevent it in our communities – burying it with the owner, holding regular debt jubilees where everyone went back to a baseline, taxing the marginal income of the extremely rich at rates that made further accumulation pointless.

Profit for profit’s sake is vanity.

It’s also destroying our ability to live well.  Even our ability to live at all on this world.

Are you happy with that?

If not, and you’re wondering where and how to get started, this tool I helped to build will help you see the system, so you can change the system:

Connect the Dots.

Discipline makes Daring possible